How the EU Referendum is Affecting Manchester Property Prices

The UK’s referendum on whether the country should remain a part of the European Union or leave, which took place at the end of June, has had far-reaching effects in many sectors, and recent figures reveal it’s impacting on property prices throughout the country. Fifty-two percent of those who voted chose to vote Leave, dividing the country, as well as towns, families and neighbourhoods. The long-term effects are still not known, but it appears areas where people voted to leave the EU have been hit hardest in terms of the property market. In fact, of the 47 cities and towns that experienced falling house prices just after the referendum, around 85% voted Leave.

In the year leading up to the referendum, England property prices rose by just over 9% on average. However, figures from July – the first full month after the referendum – revealed that the month-on-month rise had fallen to a far lower 0.4%. The referendum appears to have affected different parts of the country to varying degrees, with many analysts noting that areas that voted to leave the European Union have tended to suffer the most dramatic falls in property prices. While Manchester voted to remain in the EU, some parts of the region voted to leave. These Brexit supporting towns and districts have been the hardest hit by the slow down in house price rises.

Government data reveals that property prices in 47 cities and towns actually dropped immediately after the referendum, and a staggering 40 of these places were among those that voted to exit the EU. One such example is Rochdale, part of Greater Manchester. Rochdale residents voted in favour of leaving the Union, and the town saw a drop in average house prices of over £1,200 in the month after the vote. Similarly, Bury, where just over half of local residents voted in favour of leaving the EU, the average house fell in price by over £1,100.

The government figures also revealed that 278 towns and cities covered by their research saw house prices rise or stay at the same level as before the vote. Of these 278, just 74% had voted to leave the EU. As well as Manchester itself, places such as Stockport and Trafford also voted Remain. All three experienced house price increases in July – £2,222 in Manchester, an impressive £4,000 in Stockport, and £1,344 in Trafford.

The Brexit supporting districts and towns surrounding Manchester may have experienced some falls in property prices in the aftermath of the referendum, but data reveals that it was the north-east of the country that was hit hardest by falling prices. For example, Ribble Valley returned a vote for Leave in the referendum and saw prices drop by nearly £8,000.

Analysts and property industry experts generally believe it is too early to assess what the long-term impact of the referendum result will be, but many are in agreement that those areas that have been hardest hit have so far tended to be those that voted to leave the European Union. Many property experts believe it is likely that house prices will fall in 2017, eventually possibly recovering in the following year.

If you are currently looking to enter the rental property market as a landlord, it’s important to choose your location carefully. This is often fairly straightforward if you live in or near the area you’re planning to buy in, but it can be very difficult if you’re looking further afield for a rental property. The area you choose to buy in will of course depend on your budget and on your target rental market, and while the impact of the referendum result is yet to be fully understood, it’s worth bearing in mind that there might be a fall in EU migrants in the coming months and years. If you were planning to buy in an area with a high proportion of EU workers – for example, near a large hospital where many of the staff are migrant workers – it’s worth bearing in mind that competition among landlords may heat up in the near future. The most sensible course of action is to follow property news – both national and local – and ensure you’re fully informed before you take the plunge.

Becoming a landlord can be an extremely lucrative decision, and property remains one of the best and safest ways to invest. Keeping abreast of Moston property news, and all the local property market developments, will enable you to make the best decisions and enjoy the maximum returns on your investment.

Brexit becomes a reality…and the Prime Minister resigns. How did the property industry react?

Brexit becomes a reality…and the Prime Minister resigns. How did the property industry react?


brexit

A double whammy last week for all of us as we face the far-reaching repercussions of the UK voters’ choice. Not just the short, medium and long term effects of leaving the European Union, but a departing Prime Minister, the fuss of choosing a new Conservative leader and, thus, a new cabinet and, most likely, another General Election. And that’s just for starters.

What have we done?

The Twitter-sphere is awash with young people blaming ‘old people’ for wrecking their future. ‘Old people’ were described as the age bracket 25-49. Wasn’t it ‘old people’ who, after all, voted us into Europe in the first place? However, the Brexit comment had seemingly blown itself out and agents are back to promoting their services and properties, successes and positive thoughts for the future.

The Negotiator team has been hearing from many property commentators, who are generally taking a reasonably brave and positive view – once the initial shock settles.

James Roberts, Chief Economist at Knight Frank says that the value of the pound will inevitably fall in the near-term, as will the stock market. The chance of a technical recession, as business investment is curtailed, is high, and exporters and financial services firms will be in the forefront of the downturn.

“In the light of the above risks we expect the Bank of England to respond quickly. An interest rate cut of 25 basis points is a strong possibility at the Monetary Policy Committee’s July meeting, or perhaps earlier if required. We may also see a return of quantitative easing, if there are signs that investment is deteriorating.

“This should in our opinion help restore confidence as the summer progresses.

“Ultimately, it should be remembered that the UK is a country with 60 million wealthy consumers, and a high skill workforce. Consumer goods firms like Coca Cola and BMW will always want to access a market this big. Skills based employers like PwC and Google will always want to access such a large pool of talented workers.

“The underlying strengths of the UK economy remain in place, and ultimately real estate is an investment that works best for those who pursue long-term goals.”

Michael Robson, Andrews Property Group “The UK’s decision to leave the EU means that the uncertainty of the last few months, which has negatively impacted the market, will now continue and it’s hard to judge for how long this will be the case. This isn’t good news for homeowners.

“Previous market cycles suggest that timescales for recovery tend to be slow and long and we should be prepared for anything between three to five years for any significant bullishness to return.

“However, let’s not lose sight of reality. The underlying drivers of the property market (namely demand) will not disappear and so the market will recover as will prices. This presents a great opportunity for purchasers – especially those taking their first step on the property ladder – as they’ll have the opportunity to buy during the current lull and then reap the benefits as the market recovers.”

Richard Donnell, Insight Director at Hometrack believes that the immediate impact is likely to be a fall in housing turnover and a rapid deceleration in house price growth as buyers adopt a wait and see the short term impact on financial markets and the economy at large.”

“The decision will be most keenly felt in the London housing market which is fully valued and already facing headwinds. History shows that external shocks can reduce sales volumes by as much as 20 per cent with sales volumes already down over the last year. House price growth is already weak and running in low single digits in central London areas and modest price falls now appear likely in higher value markets as prices adjust in the face of lower sales activity.”

Martin Robinson, Director of Sales at Hunters Property Group takes a quietly positive view, “The impact on the UK property market will be difficult to determine until the negotiations between the UK and EU are finalised. We expect some clients to pause to familiarise themselves with this news, but in the past we have found the UK property market has been very resilient against changes in legislation. At the end of the day, bricks and mortar will always be a good investment option in the UK.”

David Brown, CEO of Marsh & Parsons, sums up the thoughts of many commentators this morning.“Whatever result you were hoping for on a personal level, it’s hard to argue against the fact that this result will bring further uncertainty and also creates far more questions than it answers in terms of what happens next as Britain extricates itself from the continent in terms of procedures and processes. It’s also worth noting that if the pound weakens against the Euro as some have predicted, then it could lead to a significant increase in overseas property purchases – not bad news in itself, but unlikely to have been among the intentions of many ‘leave’ voters.

“On the plus side, it makes the picture clearer for any individuals who were sitting on their hands, waiting on the outcome of the result to make their move. It’s also worth putting things into a wider perspective. Regardless of the referendum result, there is still plenty of pent-up demand in the UK housing market and a leave vote doesn’t change that overnight. The decision to leave doesn’t alter the fact that plenty of people have to and still want to move.”

Andy Martin, Senior Partner at Strutt & Parker said, “I am personally disappointed because I do not think there has been a case made to say what it means in terms of the governance, the running of the country and the changes in the legislation we would want to see. It is going to cause a huge amount of disruption to the markets while everybody takes stock of what it actually means and the government starts giving us clear policy direction. Before then we are going to have volatility, which is a risky thing to have in these markets because economic performance is still not something that is a given.

“As a firm, we are market driven. The market has shown signs of volatility in the lead up to this vote. We have seen a real cutback in trading due to the uncertainty of this vote. What we are now waiting to see is how our clients and markets will react to this. I suspect that they will continue to tread with caution until they can see the outcome. We have already seen in the currency markets that this is the case, with sterling being marked down. Everybody will say that makes the UK cheaper but, at the same time, instability affects the confidence of markets. I suspect this will be the overriding factor for the next period.”

The final word (for today) goes to Rob Clifford, Chief Executive of CENTURY 21 UK and Group Commercial Director of the SDL Group

“The vote to leave the EU presents the UK housing and mortgage market with a number of potential risks and challenges simply because of the uncertainty we are now faced with. While EU membership has often meant increased regulation for our sector – which can often be unwelcome and in my view often disregards the maturity and complexity of the UK housing and financial services market – our view on the Referendum was always one based on delivering the maximum stability for all, and therefore we would quite clearly have preferred a vote to Remain.

“Pre-vote there were a number of predictions of a negative impact in terms of house price levels and housing transaction numbers brought about by a vote to Leave, and there are obviously concerns that these predictions will now be played out. In terms of the result itself we don’t regard it as having any direct detriment to the SDL Group, its businesses, or any of the services we offer to thousands of consumers each year.

“However, we remain anxious about the much broader, potentially negative macro-economic impact this result could deliver. We do remain committed to the markets we operate in and will be working incredibly hard to ensure customer satisfaction across all of these.”

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